Is Santa Sliding Down on Wall Street?
#230 An update on the US Indices: Nasdaq, S&P500 and DJIA.
As many people, including myself, anticipated an end-of-year rally, I'm beginning to question: Is Wall Street experiencing a decline?
The path since the December 3rd high has been slippery and swift. Am I turning bearish? Not yet, but if you look at the below chart, I am not very happy about the pattern I see emerging.
It might be possible the DJIA is folding back on the two recent periods of Mercury Retrograde (Rx). At the start of Mercury Rx the DJIA made a turn, and again on December 3rd, just a week after the start of Mercury Rx. The next Mercury Rx, is expected around the lunar and solar eclipses of March 2025. The foldback scenario shows a possible path, plotted from the December 3rd high.
On the other hand, it was obvious that the recent gap was going to be filled soon. I also expected a turn in long-term cycles around mid-January 2025, but they may come in early as cycles can contract, extend, and invert,. Often, the midpoint between two lunar and solar eclipses can become a turning point in the market.
So, I am watching whether the fold-back scenario will continue after the December 23rd midpoint. At some point, fold-back scenarios will stop functioning, so we will need to observe what happens in the coming days.
What do the other 10-, 20 and 60-year cycles say for the path forward from here?